Could There Be A Global Slowdown Headed Our Way?

by stockboardasset

So, I think a global slowdown is developing in Asia and Europe, along with spreading into emerging markets. The US is the last man standing, as it is the last domino to fall. The one question we ask: When do US traders start pricing in the next downturn? To get more color on the situation we have compiled a series of tweets that could help us learn a downturn is coming:

“Much lower Philly Fed than expected and it should continue to drop going forward according to my leading vs lagging indicator. Time to challenge the very rosy US outlook? Maybe…,” h/t @MikaelSarwe

“Hard data growth differential between US and EU still favors,” h/t @LizAnnSonders

“SouthKorea’s #KOSPI index, a proxy for world trade growth closed at the lowest level since April 2017,” h/t @C_Barraud

About that “China falling apart” thing… what about US?

In a global slowdown, the US is the last domino to fall. China and industrial metals plunge are forwarning us danger ahead.

Peter Schiff weighs in on the coming slowdown

 

Swedish FinMin Andersson: There Are ‘Big Risks’ To The Economy

Philly Fed on an ISM-basis shows a 3 pt pullback. Yet the ‘special question’ shows inflation heading to 3% in the next decade from 2% in May. Stagflation thumbprints.

US Slowdown coming: All of the monetary aggregates have slowed substantially, and real M1 growth is flagging a 1% stall-speed growth economy once we get passed all the pre-tariff buying activity and fiscal sugar-high that skewed Q2 GDP.

Trump trade war = global uncertainty = slowdown

Trump flips on dollar stance — now wants strong dollar the continues risks for EM and US multinationals.

Fed QT + interest rate hike cycle are bearish for stocks.

China’s negative credit impulse has yet to make it to the US, but it ultimately will. It took ~ 1.5 years of negative credit growth to hit US equities in 2015; we’re about at that time now. More parallels to 2015:

SPX500 versus Industrial Metals — notice the collapse in metals?

SPX500 versus Chinese internet stocks — notice the collapse in internet stocks? (Apple gets about 20% revs from China)

APPL versus China-A shares

SPX500 versus EEM

Could Dow Global (weekly) be ready for the next leg down once US traders start pricing in a slowdown?

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